4.5Probabilistic tools for flood risk
management147
4.6Conclusions213
4.7Exercises214
Chapter 5Risk management： fuzzy set
approach217
5.1Paradigm change219
5.2Introduction to fuzzy sets222
5.3Fuzzy risk definition241
5.4Fuzzy tools for flood risk management
under climate change249
5.5Conclusions307
5.6Exercises308
Chapter 6Future perspectives311
6.1Understanding climate change and
flood risk management313
6.2Adaptive flood risk management
under climate change316
6.3Risk communication319
6.4Conclusions323
References325
译著序言3
译者的话5
序言7
前言11
致谢13
术语15
缩略词21
第1章洪水风险管理1
1.1全球洪水问题4
1.2洪水问题的内涵8
1.3洪水风险15
1.4如何管理洪水风险17
1.5洪水风险管理的系统观点19
1.6结论23
1.7练习题24
第2章气候变化与洪水风险25
2.1洪水及其物理特性27
2.2气候变化和变异的影响35
2.3气候变化的应对措施49
2.4结论55
2.5练习题57
第3章适应气候变化的风险管理59
3.1洪水风险管理决策过程63
3.2适应气候变化的洪水风险管理
措施74
3.3案例： 气候变化导致加拿大安大略省
London市市政基础设施
洪水风险82
3.4结论124
3.5练习题125
第4章风险管理： 概率法127
4.1风险的数学定义129
4.2风险类型135
4.3风险标准138
4.4概率风险模型的建立141
4.5洪水风险管理的概率工具147
4.6结论213
4.7练习题214
第5章风险管理： 模糊集方法217
5.1模式转变219
5.2模糊集介绍222
5.3模糊风险的定义241
5.4气候变化条件下洪水风险管理中的
模糊工具249
5.5结论307
5.6练习题308
第6章未来前景311
6.1了解气候变化与洪水风险管理313
6.2气候变化背景下适应性洪水风险
管理316
6.3风险沟通319
6.4结束语323
参考文献325
內容試閱：
前言|Preface
I have stated many times that I am one of the lucky few who have the opportunity to work all their professional lives in an area that they enjoy. The most enjoyable activity for me is to integrate knowledge from different fields into an approach for solving complex problems that include uncertainty. My work has brought me into contact with many people, responsible professionals, talented engineers, capable managers, and dedicated politicians. In my capacity as an academic I have also had an opportunity to work with young talented peoplethe future of our workforce. I learned a lot from all of them. I learned many things about the profession, I learned a lot about different cultures, and most importantly I learned about life. Thank you.
My interest in risk and flooding as a natural disaster grew from my main area of expertisewater resources systems management. From the early days of my professional career I was involved with floods and flood management, first from an engineering point of view and then later from a management point of view. Flood problems along the Morava, Sava, and Danube rivers in my country of originSerbiawere among the first professional challenges I had to deal with after graduation. In 1997, I was teaching at the University of Manitoba and living in Winnipeg. That was the year of the Flood of the Century. The governments of Canada and the USA have agreed that steps must be taken to reduce the impact of future flooding on the Red River. In June 1997, they asked the International Joint Commission IJC to analyze the causes and effects of the Red River flood of that year. The IJC appointed the International Red River Basin Task Force to examine a range of alternatives to prevent or reduce future flood damage. I was appointed to the task force and the subsequent experience changed my life.
My work has taken me all over the world. I have had an opportunity to see flood problems in the developed and developing world, in small villages and large urban centers. Projects I have been involved with range in scale from the local to the international. I have discussed flooding issues with farmers of the Sihu area in China as well as the Minister for Irrigation and Water Resources of Egypt. I hope that my professional expertise continues to contribute to the solution of some of these problems. It definitely inspires me to continue to work with greater effort and more dedication.
For more than 35 years of personal research, consulting, teaching, involvement in policy, implementation of projects, and presentation of experiences through the pages of many professional journals, I have worked hard to raise awareness of the importance of uncertaintyobjective and subjectivein the solution of complex problems. The main thrust of my work is the use of a systems approach in dealing with complexity. I have accumulated tremendous experience over the years. In that time I realized that there is an opportunity to contribute to the area of flood risk management by transferring some of the knowledge and experience from the implementation of systems thinking and systems tools to various steps of the flood risk management cycle. Writing this book offered me a moment of reflection, and it elaborates on lessons learned from the past to develop ideas for the future.
Publishing this book was made possible through the contributions of many people. I would like to start by acknowledging the publication support provided by the International Hydrologic Programme of UNESCO, and the Water Science Division team including Siegfried Demuth and Biljana Radojevic. Most of the knowledge contained in this book came from my numerous interactions with teachers, students, and colleagues throughout the world. They taught me all I know. I would like particularly to thank the students whose work is used in this text. In order of appearance in the text, they are HyungIll Eum Chapter 3, Dragan Sredojevic Chapter 3, Lisa BoweringTaylor Chapter 3, AngelaPeck Chapter 3, DejanVucetic Chapters 4 and 5, Ozren Despic Chapter 5, Ibrahim ElBaroudi Chapter 5, Taslima Akter Chapter 5, and Mike Bender Chapter 5. A special thank you goes to Veerakcudy Rajasekaram, who is the developer of the computer programs.
The support of my family, Dijana, Damjan, and Tanja, was of the utmost importance in the development of this book. They provide a very large part of my motivation, my goals, my energy, and my spirit. Without the endless encouragement, criticism, advice, and support of my wife Tanja this book would never have been completed.
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